UBA Today! Ruth Conference Draft Analysis

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BeaversGM
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UBA Today! Ruth Conference Draft Analysis

Post by BeaversGM » Sat Jul 11, 2015 3:27 am

Draft Analysis – Ruth Conference – Week 1 – Picks 1 through 7

To the relief of fans around the world, baseball is emerging from the ashes of the collapsed MLB. In seven rounds of an inaugural draft, the 24 newly hired GMs of the United Baseball Association have already put together their team cores, pulling in most of the top major league talent. In the following special editions of UBA TODAY, we will grade each team in the Ruth Conference on their picks, and make division-by-division predictions of success for the summer of ’95 and beyond. We will begin today with the East, followed by the Central and the West.

The Ruth Conference is already shaping up to be the more competitive of the two UBA conferences, with top hitting and pitching talent settling into new teams. The average new Ruthian is a full year older than the average Aaroner, and a number of Ruth clubs are clearly looking to compete for the inaugural championship trophy this year.

Ruth East

The Old Bridge Titans and the Charleston Rebels are emerging as the top clubs in the East, primarily picking up established veterans. The Titans are our current pick for the division champ.

Old Bridge Titans: Grade = A-. The Titans are going for it, and will be a top team in the Ruth Conference right away. At only 28 years old, Maddux will be the top pitcher in the Conference for years, is capable of single-handedly pushing a team into the postseason and beyond, and is undoubtedly the face of this club. Drabek and Finley make for a solid if unspectacular middle-rotation, while Alomar and Disarcina are the most talented double-play combo outside of Hollywood. On others clubs, drafting the decline years of Puckett and Clark would have raised questions (and poor grades), but in Old Bridge there is no time like the present.

SP Maddux – A+
SP Drabek – B
SS Disarcina – B-
SP Finley – B+
2B Alomar – A
RF Puckett – B-
1B Clark – B-

Charleston Rebels: Grade = A-. The Rebels are building a team that should be able to lead the conference in fewest runs allowed, with an unmatched combination of starting pitching and fielding. Brown, Smiley, and Wells are the core for what could be the best rotation in baseball, especially when paired with the spacious parks of Ruth East and when Fletcher is framing strikes behind the plate. The Rebels will go toe to toe with Maddux's Titans all season long. However, to beat out the Titans in this division, and to earn an A grade from this paper, Charleston will need to find a few heavier bats, and convince the fans that a 32 year old glove-first keystone represents more than just an obsession with this run prevention narrative.

SP Brown - A
SP Smiley - A
C Fletcher - A
SP Wells - A-
SS Clayton - B
CF McRae - B+
2B Reed - D+

NYC Baseball Club: Grade = B-. NYCBC started the draft with pointed questions about their first round pick, but strengthened their team with good picks in the later rounds. At 26 years old, many fans are concerned - and this paper agrees - that Sosa will never live up to his tools. There is a reasonable chance that he will plateau as a league average right fielder with some pop, a profile not worthy of the first round. Few analysts believe that NYC will be able to keep up with the Titans and Rebels this year, but many point to the team's youth as a promise of future improvements. The rotation of Glavine, Hamilton, and Henry is a good one, and young, and in a park that suppresses right handed hitting, along with very good gloves on the left side of the infield, the two lefties ought to put up good numbers against hitters from both sides of the plate. If you swapped out Sammy for a top hitter, this club would be on the verge of contending now, and is in a good position to challenge in years ahead.

RF Sosa - D
SP Glavine - B+
SP Hamilton - A-
SS Jo. Valentin - B-
C Posada - B
3B Fryman - B-
SP Henry - A-

Coney Island Whitefish: Grade = C+. The theme in Coney Island is young bats, and the Whitefish went seven for seven. At an average age of only 24 years, only Kansas City has drafted younger than the Whitefish. Youth means future talent, but also raw edges, and even with a good offensive club it is unlikely that the Whitefish will be competitive in this tough division in 1995, with a bunch of scrubs likely to fill out the rotation this year. That said, Salmon, Jones, Lopez, Stewart, and Gilkey represent a strong young core of position players around which the GM will build, and once the Whitefish put together a decent pitching staff, the rest of the Ruth East best watch their backs.

RF Salmon - A
3B Jones - B
C J. Lopez - B+
CF Stewart - C+
1B Olerud - C-
2B Alfonso - C
LF Gilkey - B-
Chad S.
Portland Beavers (1994+), UBA

San Francisco Peanuts (1970+), TBC
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Ruth Conference Draft Analysis (Central)

Post by BeaversGM » Sat Jul 11, 2015 4:57 pm

Ruth Central

In the Central, the Toledo Troutheads and Eden Prairie Landsharks will enter 1995 as the division favorites, with Toledo as our current slight favorite for division champ due to five veteran hitters all capable of putting up an .800 or better OPS. The Landsharks, however, put together a strong present-day team that could easily end up taking the division in 1995, while picking up more youth than the Troutheads, and thus get our highest grade in this division. This division houses a lot of power hitters, and fans should be treated to a ton of home-runs.

Eden Prairie Landsharks: Grade = A- The Landsharks built the strongest rotation core in Ruth outside of the East, with Mussina, Fernandez, and Avery all high impact early round picks. Lofton, a prankster at heart, is the glue holding the team together, and even with limited range should be an above average fielding and hitting center fielder, while leading all of baseball in base running value. Stanley calls a good game behind the plate, and is probably the teams best hitter thus far. Jordan and Cirillo are well-rounded league average players and won’t hurt the team, but look like overdrafts to some fans.

SP Mussina – A
SP Fernandez – B+
CF Lofton – A-
SP Avery – A-
RF B. Jordan – C+
C Stanley – A
3B Cirillo – B

Toledo Troutheads: Grade = B+ The Troutheads have built a team around power hitting, with five veteran position players capable of hitting 25 homeruns or more, lead by perennial all-star Benito Santiago, who is also a very good pitch caller. With three of these guys on the wrong side of 30, the Troutheads want to start winning right away. And as long as Hideo Nomo and Andy Ashby pitch to the scouts’ expectations, and don’t succumb to critics who worry they may be overrated and primed for an early decline, the Troutheads will win the division in 1995 and perhaps beyond.

SP Nomo – B+
LF J. Gonzalez – B-
C B. Santiago – A
SS K. Mitchell – B
SP Ashby – B+
RF O’Neill – B+
CF C. Davis – A-

Kansas City Monarchs: Grade = B+ The Monarchs have yet to pick a player over 24 years old, and this commitment to youth earns them good marks in our book. Although they almost certainly will not compete for the division crown in 1995, they have set themselves up with plenty of future budget room and a number of interesting young position players and starting pitchers, all of whom will eventually pay dividends. Although we see Pettitte and Klesko as slight overdrafts with picks #15 and #34, all seven picks are good long term investments. The success of this strategy, however, will hinge on how the rest of the draft unfolds and on what KC does with its budget flexibility in future years.

SP Pettitte – B-
LF Klesko – B
3B Giambi – A-
SP B Jones – A
RF S. Green – B+
C C. Johnson – B
SP M. Sirotka – B-

Dallas Daredevils: Grade = B- The Daredevils committed all 6 of their first picks to high OBP guys who can also hit the ball out of the park, putting together a line-up that should score a lot of runs. However, as one of only two clubs that did not pick a starting pitcher among their first seven (electing to take the unorthodox step of picking a closer in round 7), it is hard to imagine this team competing for the division crown in 1995, especially with below average fielders. That said, most of their picks are young or just entering their prime years, and if Dallas can patiently put together a league average pitching staff, the Devils could surge ahead in the standings.

RF M. Ramirez – B+
1B Bagwell – C+
CF Lankford – A-
3B Ventura – B+
LF J. Canseco – C+
2B Naehring – A-
CL Percival – C-
Chad S.
Portland Beavers (1994+), UBA

San Francisco Peanuts (1970+), TBC
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Ruth Conference Draft Analysis (West)

Post by BeaversGM » Sun Jul 12, 2015 5:34 pm

Ruth West

Out West, the Ruth Conference has its toughest division with all four teams ready to make an immediate run in the standings. In Hollywood and Phoenix we possibly have the top two offenses in all of baseball, while further north both Seattle and Irvine have taken a balanced approach, putting together solid all-around teams with players just entering their prime years. According to our spreadsheets, Hollywood is on pace to win the most games, but Irvine and Phoenix are right behind the Stars. Given how tough it will be for the Stars to put together a decent rotation at this stage of the draft, we aren’t prepared to give them the division and will withhold our formal prediction until later in the draft.

Phoenix Firebirds: Grade = A The Firebirds were both bold and lucky to pick up Bonds and McGwire as far down as they fell; they are now the most potent hitting combination in all of baseball, with McGwire this publication’s pick to lead all Ruthers in walks, home-runs, and RBIs, while Bonds will compete with his in-division rivals Edgar Martinez and Matt Williams for MVP. The Firebirds made the wise choice to pick up Navarro in the 6th round, a good quality SP who flew a bit under the radar in the draft. Lockhart, whether played at 2B or 3B, was a steal in the 8th round for a contending team. White, Veras, and Offerman were all slight over-drafts, but - given their relative youth - made sense for a team that otherwise targeted players in their prime.

LF Bonds – A
1B McGwire – A+
CF White – B-
SS Offerman – B+
RF Justice – A-
SP J Navarro – A
2B Veras – B
3B Lockhart – A

Seattle Steelheads: Grade = A- The Steelheads made a number of high value picks of players just entering their prime, which should carry the team for years to come. While the division competition will be fierce in 1995, and we predict Seattle will end up on the outside looking in this year, their future as an organization is bright. Reggie Sanders and Mike Piazza anchor the team, while three smart starting pitcher picks in Nagy, the knuckleballer Wakefield, and the greatly named VanLandingham make for a core rotation that should exceed most analysts’ performance expectations, even if we think the ace is probably not the one most would expect. While our spreadsheets would not have put Jaha or Kent as the best players available at their positions in those rounds, both are quality picks with upside potential.

C Piazza – A
RF Sanders – A+
SP Nagy – B
SP Wakefield – A
2B Kent – B+
SS Dunston – B+
SP VanLandingham – A-
1B Jaha – B

Irvine Aces: Grade = B+ The Aces made excellent choices in rounds 4 through 8 and have emerged as the most well-balanced win-now club in their division; depending on how well they fill their next half dozen picks may determine whether or not we decide to tap them for the predicted division crown instead of the Stars (and up their overall grade). However, there were other starting pitchers and impact hitters on the board we would have grabbed before their first four picks. As the only club to select four big-league ready starting pitchers in the first eight rounds, the Aces may have the depth to hold off the offensive juggernauts out west this season. Ultimately, however, where Matt Williams goes, Irvine will follow; he will be cornerstone of their offense – and we are somewhat worried about some analysts’ predictions of an early decline.

SP Neagle – B+
3B M. Williams – B
SP Saberhagen – B-
1B R. Palmeiro – B-
SP C. Perez – A-
LF L. Gonzalez – A-
SP Harnisch – A-
CF Finley – A

Hollywood Stars: Grade = B In an unusual twist, we are giving Hollywood both a slight (informal) edge on odds to win the division in 1995, and our lowest grade in their division. Their offense is shaping up to be excellent, and Edgar Martinez is our pick to win MVP in 1995; if he holds up long enough with age he may be the most valuable player picked in the draft (a big if). Given the paucity of talent at shortstop, the Stars were brilliant and/or lucky to get Larkin the second round, while Bonilla, Haney, and Bichette all provide excellent offensive value. Where the picks get a little more murky is with Sid Fernandez, who is already well into a decline phase and probably wouldn’t crack a lot of teams’ rotations, and 36-year old Ricky Henderson, who - because of the log-jam at 3B and LF caused by the pick of Bonilla - doesn’t have a natural position on the team, and will probably start most games at DH. Unless the Stars put together a league average rotation over the next few picks, we’re not sure that we’ll be able to stick with them as our division favorites.

3B E. Martinez – A+
SS Larkin – A+
LF/3B Bonilla – B+
2B Haney – A
SP S. Fernandez – D
RF Bichette – A
LF/DH – R. Henderson D-
CF L. Johnson – A-
Chad S.
Portland Beavers (1994+), UBA

San Francisco Peanuts (1970+), TBC
Seattle Mariners (2017+), RDBL

ChefHammer

Re: UBA Today! Ruth Conference Draft Analysis

Post by ChefHammer » Thu Jul 16, 2015 10:50 am

outstanding stuff chad!!! and let me take this opportunity for those that do not know me.....EVERYONE is currently OTB....looking for pitching!!!


LET'S DANCE!!!!!

steelheads
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Re: UBA Today! Ruth Conference Draft Analysis

Post by steelheads » Sat Jul 18, 2015 2:58 am

Great work mate!

Martin

Jason_Irvine

Re: UBA Today! Ruth Conference Draft Analysis

Post by Jason_Irvine » Mon Jul 20, 2015 12:34 am

Great Analysis, Chad!
Thanks for your efforts, man.

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